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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."